The IMF have no cred. The BIS are the only ones to have correctly predicted the current problems (and they had some pretty dire warnings). The IMF have flip flopped every which way.
Japan is a country limited by space and land supply. Here is a graph showing how their land values held up over 20 years of debt deflation:
http://tochi.mlit.go.jp/english/6-05.pdf
Do you think many saw this coming? Some did, but the vast majority didn't - as is the case for "can't possibly happen to us" Australia.
Whenever median real estate is valued over 3x median wage, something will kick in to take it down a notch - and this time won't be any different.
The property bulls keep telling themselves it is different this time. I agree. It is different this time. It is very, very different this time and that is why the market is having a tantrum. Real estate will not be able to withstand the Tsunami of a debt deflation. Deep down we all know it - even the most bullish of bulls must be getting a sense of the magnitude of the problem by now (Bear Sterns, Lehman Brothers, Indy Mac, Countrywide, AIG, Optus Prime, Centro, The Federal Reserve, The continual "emergency meetings", Bushes continual "Everything is fine, nothing to see here" pleads). If not, good luck trading your hypothesis - may your leverage be huge but your gains infinite and may bankruptcy pass you by.
