some sensible analysis

As declared earlier, I have bought back into lum via a small punt on the LUMOs. Now holding a swag of these little stinkers for a $4500 punt/investment ...

Like many others LUM cost me a packet a year or two back when I weighed into the New York story and bought at .60 ... all the while unbeknowns to us small fry a substantial shareholder was selling (hello asic, anybody home?) .. no doubt some got rich and some got fleeced. In hindsight I had a far too generous stoploss, but cut my losses at that stop and moved on to greener pastures ... (well some more greener than others) ... I did trade lum successfully in the .16 range, but apart from my recent buy its rarely featured on my radar.

So, what's changed.

1. management ... no doubt the mob in charge now look the real deal. industry experience and no snake oil salesmen. They are taking it slow and steady, ticking all the boxes before they push the company forward
2. value ... even with all the previous disasters, lum looks like its valued at little more than a shell. in actual fact the vertigo business looks like it has a few strings to its bow. its not going to take too many contracts and cash flow to have this company find some sp appreciation.
3. china ... the reason i bought into lum in the first place wsa i thought china would be a huge market for outdoor advertising hcih could offer power savings. lumapanel may have been a dud, but the fact remains the company never pushed itself into this market ... now they are there with a local manufacturer and there are huge opportunities to leverage big events like the olymics, with the low cost of manufacturing product for higher margin business in us and europe.
4. options ... the oppies are for .07 expiring at start of 2009. cheap entry into a possible turnaround story.
5. the industry ... outdoor ad industry is flying ... there are opportunities if they can be taken ... lum perhaps offers a way into the industry at an entry level.
6. aquisitions ... stay tuned i would reckon

So, what does lum management need to do to get it firing

1. contracts ... they need a big one soon to show the new business plan is working.
2. rebrand it ... surely vertigo asia needs to be the trading name ? rid itself of the lum stench
3. consolidation ... not that many shares on issue, but if they did a 5:1 it would immediately make the company more appealing to investors.

As I say I'm merely having a punt here. Lum cost me X number of dollars and effectively this investment will round that loss off if it goes down the drain ... the upside is that these oppies have 20 months to run with a lot of water to go under the bridge (china olympics, etc) before then.

Would welcome some sensible analysis of lum's prospects or otherwise and thoughts on this contribution ... anyone spoken to management lately, heard what's going on behind the scenes ??? where's the website gone ... surely they paid the bill ? lol

comments brickbats ... lum ...