some sums for debate

thought I'd do some sums, with the hope promoting a little goodwill, and amicable discussion on the figures.
Seems things are a little tense given that these good times can to be shared by all.
And from what I conclude from below it's still not to late to hop on board... so here we go..

had a look at some Telstra figures in their HY to 2005.
pstn revenue - half yearly to dec 2004 - $4,131m
pstn revenue - half yearly to dec 2005 - $3,818m

a drop of 7.6% or $313 million... mmmm... decline of 3.6% quoted for the previous corresponding period... mmmm.. an increase in the decline of pstn.... ok what else.

some more interesting figures
an 89% growth in broadband subscribers... great stuff T, um.. what if these subs want voip today :)

then had a review of Engin.
what we know:
24,000 subs - end of feb (paying subscribers on board)
30,000 subs - originally quoted as break even
250,000 line network expansion in the pipeline.

lets say 45,000 subs to breakeven due to reduced arpu of $30/month.
leaving potentially 205,000 subs to provide profit.

So in simplistic terms thats a potential current max capability of :

205,000 * 30 = $6,150,000 / month = $73,800,000 gross profit per annum
with 30% tax = $22,140,000
Potential yearly NET = $51,660,000

so that's a potential eps of
51.66/228 = $0.2266 or 22.66c

pe of say 12 to be conservative

22.66c*12= $2.71 ps !!


but wait there's more !!:

4 million broadband customers expected by dec 2006 in Australia
say 0.5 million take up voip by dec 2006
at current market share of 40%, that's 200,000 subs. (close to capacity by dec 2006)

but what if 0.75 million take up voip
at current market share of 40%, that's 300,000 (further expansion required before dec 06)

Then there's 2007, further accelerated broadband growth projected, then 2008....

Oh.. I forgot, there's the overseas expansion, bpl potential, maybe more brewing...


Conclusion... think I'll hang on a little longer :)

If someone can point out whether I've gone astray, please do, I'd rather debate this now.
and if proven wrong, then you'll be helping me greatly... because right now... it'll take a crow bar to get me off this ride.

Arpeggio