In addition, where do you think the rebels get their bullets...

In addition, where do you think the rebels get their bullets from? Certainly not the bullet fairy. They have probably over the decades been supplied by the Chinese state with the intention of destabilizing their neighbours for geo-strategic reasons. Now though, China doesn't want no yahoo guerilla's blowing up their oil pipeline. Of course if China & Japan get into a war, and the Japanese navy is the world's second largest and bluewater capable, the Japanese will just sail around to Shwe and blow up the terminal to cut off China's remaining lifeline

In a nutshell - rebels maybe, Japanese more likely