some thoughts re dws

  1. DSD
    15,977 Posts.
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    DWS is one of the few stks i've made consistent profits on. Never big profits, but consistentency during 5 years of stkmkt turbulence, while many of my shares lost substantially. I currently don't hold any DWS or any IT shares for that matter. Here is my reasoning on things.
    A) The world economy is almost certainly going to continue to deterioate. China included imo.
    B) The most likely outcome is the ASX will continue falling. Where will it stop?? I'll have a guesstimate between 3,600 and 4,000.
    C) My defn of a 'cheap stk' is one that increases in value AFTER you buy it.
    D) Best place to put one's money is in firms with:
    1) essential business e.g. supermarkets, electricity suppliers etc. Things society can't do without.
    2) Must have reliable and strong cashflow.
    3) Needs big margins and ROE.
    4) Right buy-price.

    IMO DWS only has a few of these desired traits. I've recently read that software/IT firms will do badly from recent Fed budget, but other commentator feels IT will prosper. i prefer more certainty. Should DWS win a $60-100m contract... the SP will jump 12c or more. But how certain can we be this will occur?

    The history of DWS is one of consistent divs with only one giltch during GFC. By normal standards it looks cheapish at $1.40. But it's still too risky for me to enter at this price. I may end-up missing out, but prefer to watch company and remain patient. Holders should hold but buyers can wait. Time will tell.
 
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