some thoughts

Thought I'd post some thoughts on my observations of recent events. For the record, I'm relatively new but have been watching for a while, no pls be nice before judging this :) I sold out at high 9s and bought some back at low 8s. It might go a bit lower still, but I doubt too much. It depends a lot on the broader markets.

I see a few reasons for the sell-off. For a start, it was over-hyped (ramped if you like) for far too long. Anyone expecting "the next PDN" overnight was kidding themselves... although maybe in a better market it might have been different.

To get a price increase you need to have people actually wanting to buy in, but most were already set well before - there certainly wasn't much surprise element in the ANN to make lots of people want to jump in. I guess the price spike that some were anticipating had already happened gradually pre-ann.

The stock is also very reactive to the markets, which have had a shocker lately. Usually, EXT will vary up or down by a similar % as a few other miners on my watch list. Interestingly, EXT remained quite stable in the days before the ANN when everything else got hammered. It probably had some catching down to do.

Then there's the short term traders. Some got burnt expecting a surge after the ann. More probably got burnt expecting a bounce from the initial decline. And then dumped it in disgust 3 days later.

I also see signs of manipulation happening. Fake or real, I see high bids at high 7s to low 8s. Today I also see periodic capping on the sell side when the price is in "danger" of increasing.

The share offer? Could be read either way. Everyone knew more needed to be raised eventually, though I didn't expect so soon. It could mean that they don't have as much in the bank as they expected... or it could mean that they're planning on additional or more detailed exploration that wasn't previously expected (eg. the high grade finds, more anticipated land?)

A dog? For short term traders, I can see why you say that and I probably agree. I attempted to trade a portion of my holding and didn't really achieve much. It's very volatile, unpredicatable, and gets played with too much. However, longer term it still looks promising and the fundamentals haven't really changed. I think it might be a good thing that some of the shine and expectation has been taken off this stock for now. I'm keeping a smaller holding in hope of it building with further news on new land and more drill results.

btw, I don't really understand why people think they can make a difference ramping up/down and carrying on like they do here. Maybe some will get sucked in, but the average EXT post might be lucky to get read 100 times which, in the scheme of things, makes very little difference. The best you can hope for is to provoke some discussion to explore the possibilities - abusing each other and making baseless comments really doesn't achieve anything...