Firstly I'd like to say I don't want to get into any individual banter but there's certain things that I don't agree with.
Today we had a new topic called "not worth 30m" started by a respectable poster on HC. At the time the price was 46c
I wouldn't normally care, but this heading is far from the truth. Now at 46c it was said the market cap is close to $30m.
Quotes securities: 24,082,505
Options November 2013: 10,641,252 (20c exercise)
Securities not quoted: 15,000,000 24 months escrowed
1,950,000 escrow until 16/06/2011
1,500,000 escrow until 10/11/2011
Total shares on issue: 42,532,505
Now we know they have $3.7m cash
To work out a fully diluted market cap I find it pointless to include options that have an expiry of 29/11/2013. The share price could be anywhere from now till then as there will be extensive drilling and by then the company could be worth a lot more.
Lets include it anyway. As of close of 37.5c
37.5 x 42,532,505 = $15.9m
37.5 x 10,641,252 = $4m
If all the options were converted that would give the company $2.12m cash
So as of today, fully diluted
Cash $5.8m
Market cap as of todays close $19.9m
Now takeaway the cash component and you get;
$14.1m
At 46c the figure comes to $18.65m
So there you have it, nowhere near $30m as first mentioned.
I didn't read the IPO before tonight. Some interesting facts;
- page 22 Non Executive Director - Nichloas Revell
Is a former Chief Mine Geologist of Fortescue Metal Group. His leadership was instrumental in helping Fortescue grow from an iron ore junior into one of the worlds largest iron ore producers.
- have exposure to REE gold and copper, all of the hot sectors right now
- page 14 show some very nice high grade mines containing Cu and Au in the very area where we got a good announcement today - Blind Calf
I will say this again. They drilled 4 holes widely spaced. One of the holes was surperb and ended in high grade mineralisation. What are the chances that this is the best they will find? have a goood think about it.
In saying everything, you really have to ask yourself whether it's likely they will have more good results. Make no mistake this is a speculative stock with an EV of $14m. You cannot be guaranteed of further success but you have to weigh things up and ask yourself what is the likelihood of any further success. This is where money is made and lost.
Good luck. I have backed my judgement today and bought in substantially.
We will see 14 holes drilled at 200m each this month and it will give us and management a better picture
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