Hi Domma, I am in the same boat as you, researching this stock. And trying not to get caught up in the hype, I've had some a great answer or two to a couple of my questions, but mostly "How dare you question the second coming" type responses. I'll try and summarise my thoughts here on the technology, the speculation and stock for the sake of getting my ducks in a row and hopefully to provide you with no-sentiment perspective. THIS IS NOT FINANCIAL, PLEASE MAKE NO DECISIONS BASED ON THIS DYOR, I am just spit balling, I am neither expert financial analysis or bio-chemist.
I think this is a speculative risk/reward stock at the moment. You can take a risk that the company announcements will eventuate and make a killing if they do, or wait for confirmations at which time hype+insiders-knowing-ahead-market=higher entry.
My research into the market generally is very positive, OBJs results can't really be fudged so it's definitely a working technology. It's disrupting chemical permeation, and with the exception of Voltaren's secondary permeation product (Emulgel as opposed to emulgel+, the earlier of which OBJs technology shows significant advantage) the tests don't appear to ahve been conducted comparing them to competition, just against bare skin unaided application. I may be wrong on this, but I can't find any evidence that says otherwise.
P&G is enormous, so if they take up the technology AND utilise it in an array of products then the excitement about this is way, way warranted, the gains would be over the moon.
However, P&G have not confirmed the PDA (Product Development Agreements) yet. One or two decisions due soon (exactly when has been debated here on HC), and rest over next couple years I believe. OBJ is also in discussion with couple of other heavy weight companies according to company presentations.
Another perspective on the technology is that P&G reiterates it is not in the medical pharmaceutical business, and hence the product with P&G would be a presented almost as a marketing gimmick for moisturisers and the shavers and the like. Which is something of a shame, because the if it's efficay is real it's best use is as a medical (drug) release system. If the pharmaceutical industry utilised it, then it would be real disruptive technology. I can't determine wheter P&Gs rights would preclude use of OBJ technology in pharmaceuticals via rights though, as PDA details are unknown. One would assume P&G full exclusive rights though.
Also as the content of the PDAs are not available, it;s unknown if P&G will pay anything for the PDAs which are for 5 years (if I remember corrrectly) if they are not developed to a product release. i.e.: they have rights for 5 years, but is there a return for that 5 years if P&G turns around and says they can't find a market for the technology. If however they were to utilise it n a mega=quantity product like shavers (one of thePDAs) the royalties would be astronomical, even at small royalty levels (noone has any idea whatsoever of even a quantum ange for royalties it seems).
Regardless of efficacy of the main technology (skin permeation, which I am prone to believe is effective but that's not 100% proven against competitor products) the technology has advantages in health responses (allergy, rashes etc from chemicals) and a more controllable release envelope (quicker and more consistent release).
There has been some pre-patent experimentation separate to OBJ on the use of electro technology in permeation in universities in Europe and USA. How they may effect the other 5 patents I cannot know, it's way too technical.
I think the P&G usage of the technology
It's still mostly spec stock in my research, royalty ratio for current product (wand and cream with SKII company, but it's been on shelves for a little while so it's probably not a barn burner) seem not to have been released anywhere. And the 5 PDAs with P&G may or may not develop. Even though my BELIEF is that it is probale that at least some get up, maybe all, how long form PDA to product actually being deisgned and put onto shelves is an IF and WHEN question that makes this speculative.
The company has up until now an excellent record of shareholder communication, that is a big bonus. But it is also self promotion, obviously. I'd be happy to ear what you have turned up in your research also.
Much of this anlaysis may be wrong, or I may have missed things that others have picked up; it's just a base summary of quite a bit of time delving into OBJ by a rank amateur.
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