For all the intellectual adroitness of the kids which has apparently equipped them to come to a definitive and unequivocal view on what is a profound, statistically complex and academically challenging subject given the very broad scope and the multi-variate potential sources of false causality, it strikes me that they either missed the class, or were playing on their i-Phones, while the teacher was focusing on the part of the Year 6 syllabus that deals with basic arithmetic in the context of weighted averages and growth rates.
Because, even rudimentary maths will reveal that, when:
1. you have 7 billion people currently living on the planet, and 1 billion
[*] of those 7 billion people have an environmental footprint that, on a
per capita basis, is at least 10 times that of the other 6 billion people in terms of carbon emissions,
2. economic development and urbanisation in the under-developed and the developing world means that the
per capita carbon emissions of the 6 billion people is likely to rise meaningfully from the current low base over next, say, 30 years, and
3. the size of that cohort of 6 billion people will rise by 50%, to close 9 billion, over that 30-year time frame,
....then, even despite the 1 billion cohort reducing their carbon emissions by 50% (which will be no mean feat), it will still not be enough to offset a very meaningful increase (>
40%)
[#] in
total global carbon emissions.
So it's really somewhat of a numbers game, I'm afraid.
The kids can march until the soles of their branded running shoes are worn out, but I'm not sure it will change things on the planet, where the growing population of the 6 billion people in the developing world are increasing their carbon footprint as they aspire - perfectly reasonably and legitimately - to live like the planet's other high-consuming, high-polluting lucky 1 billion people.
[*] The lucky ones living in developed economies.
[#] The exercise is intended to be indicative, not prescriptive, and is based on the following raw(and modest) assumptions:
- Study End Point =
2050
- Chosen global population split (for the purposes of this exercise):
Current Situation: Developed World =
1 billion; Underdeveloped/Developing World =
6 billion
2050 Expectation: Developed World =
1.1 billion; Underdeveloped/Developing World =
8.9 billion
- Current
per capita carbon emissions ratio (1 billion people in developed world: 6 billion people in developing world) =
1:10
- Rate of increase of per capita carbon emissions among the 6 billion developing world cohort =
2 times, so from 1:10 to 1:20 relative to current levels of developed world
per capita emissions.... in reality it is likely to rise to more than just that modest degree
- Reduction in
per capita carbon emissions among the 1 billion developed world cohort =
50% between now an 2050
Tabular representation of this crude exercise, showing the indicative change in Total Emissions between now and 2050:
View attachment 1379719
