Hey all!
Is anyone actually arguing with Micky's take on the cashflow? GB - why do you think his figures are out of date? And anyone know why he was suspended for his post? The figures he quotes seem right to me, ie:
Funds left at 30 September: $481,000
Spending roughly $254,000 monthly
Guesstimate 1 Nov balance: circa $227,000
That would seem correct. We knew the chances were they needed to raise capital. Clearly the reason there are further announcements coming very soon are because this newsflow will tie in with fund raising.
Some back-of-the-envelope figures:
To become self-funding at present levels, assuming:
* $700 AUD profit per ounce
* total capex and amortized opex of $350,000 monthly as production comes online (new staff for example - this will probably need to go up depending on equipment and plant)
Then:
* MCO needs to be recovering 500oz per month, 6000oz (186600 grams per year).
* At 10g/t average, that equates to 18660 tonnes p/a needing to be processed, or 389 tonnes a week - allowing for 4 weeks downtime, weather etc being potentially an issue.
My assumptions are contestable, on the cautious side, and a quick calc only. Plus, it needs to be said, I'm extremely hung over this morning ;) I'm factoring in slightly increased cash costs or POG in AUD at $950 or so. Yes 10g/t is low - lower than the 11.2 the company quotes without grade factoring, but I'm assuming some lower grade stuff in there to potentially average down. This figure is, of course, one of the real wild cards in the mix here.
Other than those cashflow figures, no real new info in this report. Like y'all, I'm very much looking forward to hearing the news coming out shortly.
Personally I'm not too worried about the need to raise capital, as I think the market has more or less priced this in. Will be interesting to see what the option gone for is.
Mal, you seem to have a bit of a clue here. Do you, or anyone else, want to throw out some purely speculative ways in which the company might raise capital without further dilution? Not that we're talking massive dilution of a couple of million extra shares were put into the market.
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