I sold my last 15000 CXSOA at 8c - wish I'd held out for 15c or...

I sold my last 15000 CXSOA at 8c - wish I'd held out for 15c or more, but how was I to know? (I sold most of my CXSOA just before the takeover announcement, so my overall result is a tiny loss.)

There only seem to be a few explanations for someone buying CXSOA at 20c. 1) they have no idea what they're doing. 2) they have a short position they have to cover. 3) they're trying to cast doubt on the takeover, possibly so they can accumulate CXS cheaply. 4) they know a $1.20+ counter-offer is coming. With 4) they'd have to be sure enough of a high enough price to make the options better than the heads, which are a lot less risky.