$11 is fair value if you are factoring in about 7% average growth for the next 5 years with relatively stable margins and no major company changes.
Considering the following:
*Aus PDL growth should be pretty marginal over the next few years
*Lending to grow substantially
*USA might take another 12-36 months but could eventually transform this company into something much much bigger. The growth opportunity is MASSIVE and CCP is pursuing it very safely - firstly they waited until they were debt free so FCF could fund it and then they have created a presence that is building the necessary relationships and trust without costing shareholders dearly. I view it as an option pay off; if it doesn't work then we are down say 5 years of small controlled operating losses but if it does pay off...the returns will be provide a fantastic risk reward payoff.
All the above leads me to believe that 7% growth is a fairly accurate, yet conservative, assumption.
CCP Price at posting:
$10.13 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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