Hi Recyug. I dont agree with your conclusions that ARD sp should be falling short term.. If you take USN sp as stable around 16c then each ARD holder will receive effectively 8c worth of USN. Now what value you place on current ARD sp depends on what you think it is worth after the USN allocation when it only has Kempfield. + that 8c notional value.
Look at what ARD was trading at prior to Bullant purchase announcement. Add in value for the increased price of silver + Kempfield has progressed. ARD has cash now. maybe you discount the 8c a little as it is not cash. and since Bullant purchase announ there will have been a net increase in number of shares.
I believe that todays ARD sp of 23c-25c is about where it should be.
What we dont know of prior to ex USN, is any positive announ re the progression of Kempfield or the progression of Bullant. Either could increase ARD sp. Or you may think that USN is worth more or less than 16c.
The options i dont think are worth looking at atm due to the flagged new strike price of around 18c. They do look good value right now but after going ex USN not so.
ARD Price at posting:
24.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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