hi from the uk! Hi Stainless, Stolly and other Epitanners.Here's...

hi from the uk! Hi Stainless, Stolly and other Epitanners.
Here's some musings from Matt Black.........

I have relocated to the UK but am watching EPT like a hawk. I have noticed a few things recently.
Remember about 12 months ago when EPT released a company update and on that update they said they were due to launch melanotan onto the market in 2006? Well I read a quote from Winters recently saying that they were now aiming for 2007? Anyone else read this? I thought they were aiming for mid 06. But their website says late 06/early 07. Most likely will be 2007. As far as I am concerned 6 months is not really a significant variation. I think that the market has got wind of this and a few people have thought- nothing will happen for a while- there are delays and I'll sell now and jump back in a bit later on. Perhaps this may explain a drift down in the share price. Another reason for the drift down could be that some recipients of the recent share issue may well have decided to take a profit. SP could go side ways for few more months- till phase III starts.

I also understand that EPT are going to start phase III in 2005-originally announced at dec 04. They seem to be doing quite a few studies atm- genotype, PMLE due to start god knows when, and Phase III due to end god knows when, also- Ib still dragging on. I understand that trials need to be thorough and can understand that there are often delays which can frustrate the market (and me). I kind of wish that they would just focus on phase III and commercialisation as priority number one (coz lets face it- this is going to make the most money as a cosmetic), and then worry about PMLE, virtiligo, genotype study and other stuff later on- once they are very cash flow positive. I am happy that they brought some addition products- (I am having trouble finding out how much they paid for these- anyone know?) long term they will add to the appeal, stability and viability of the company which is no longer a one product company. It will also provide them with a bit of income which they can funnel towards their trials.

Then there is the Joint venture thingy. Last time I looked at their website- they said they had sussed out manufacturers that were capable of mass production of melanotan and they would try to get the best quotes off various potential suppliers. I've said this before but I would rather see EPT fund their own Phase III and commersialisation venture (in the form of further share issues or a bank loan of some sort) than get funding from a big pharma which will then proceed to take a savage slice of the melanotan profits which would otherwise end up in the pockets of EPT investors. Maybe the talk of a JV is just a company bluff because when I spoke to winters at last years AGM he said that EPT was better off going it alone. Hhhhmmmmm. The games they play..........

I like to explore aspects of a company that I invest in- I have sounded a bit negative perhaps in this post having said that I still see the fundamentals are still rock solid-melanotan is still marching towards commercialisation at a slow but satisfactory rate. I still have faith in the management especially since I have met them.

Even though I brought 100,000 @ 0.32 I intend to buy another 25,000 @ about 0.85 very soon- I really think that the share price should be about $1.20+ by now. I like the independant assesment of an income of $1.5 Billion for the first two years for melanotan (could end up being much higher than that). COH has an income of $20 million a year and a SP of $23 last time I looked- so if EPT rakes in say $1 Billion a year (that is one million people worldwide paying $1000 AUS for a year round tan- a very conservative figure) what will their share price be? It should crack $10 easily- who knows maybe $20 or $100?

Any newbies do your own research- but there seems to be a nice little lull for a while enabling buyers to get at a low/moderate price- I am.

Hang tough beleivers- Even though there is a 2.5-3 year wait-EPT will have its day in the sun and well all get together and have a EPT party!!!

Matt Black