something happening?, page-33

20Twenty20
I am with you...a select few are having a lend of this company. The select few are Algorythmic Traders(BOTS) and Shorters. Don't any one be fooled that the rise was due to gold going up or people quiting equities to invest in physical 'hard cold bullion'. Actually, that does play a part in their game, gives the excuse(sentiment) to ride it up.
On what I call Black Wednesday(5/5/10) I sold all my portfolios at market and asked questions later. One was a T+1 trade that went horribly wrong due to opening prices on this day,only option was to hit at market because no matter what figure you picked it changed instantly. One was a company that had me tied up since Nov 09 and I wasn't prepared to sit 'til end of this year for a possible stike on the richest gas field Aust may or may not discover. One was Aust's second biggest ore producer, no question on this one about seeing my capital,plus some, in the near future. The last was sold because it was not worth the return. All sold to return my capital to one massive pool and start again after entering the market 9 months ago. I gave back $108 000 of profits. I do not complain for one iota,I racked up double this in 9 months. Why you ask? Why not sit? BECAUSE no matter what fundamentals a company has or what 'crisis' the world is experiencing,sentiment is the key driver and as a result shorters and bots home in on this. My biggest learning tool for the year is,learn how bots trade. Which brings me back to SBM.
It is the most predictable stock I have traded. On a fresh start I bought 850kunits at 25.5 to sell at 26,then dropped the units down to 800k due to then paying 26.5,plugged in 28 and sat back for 48hrs. Not fussed that I sold for 28 and price went beyond. Yesterday it opened at 28 and then quickly retreated to 27.5,then 27. Most thought it could not hold 28,went to 27.5,so I better sell for 27 before the next offer is 26.5,and that is exactly as it performed,a toggle between 27 and 26.5. A quick check of course of sales showed that it hit 28 on about 7000 units made up of a quick succession of about 500 units each(BOT trades). In my eyes SBM DID NOT open at 28.If it opened and sold 4million units,that is worth an opening. The day before a manure load went through for 27 and 27.5. Once again, I see that as cheap stock picked up last week and off loaded. The buyers bought it on the impression of the gold price and the mentallity of missing out. Yesterday most probably sold for 26.5 on a tight stop loss or the 'fear' the 'crisis' was back on.
IMO,gold stocks do not fluctuate down that much just because gold loses in some cases,5 bucks and then 10 bucks the next day. If gold goes up 100 in one week and loses 50 of it,kiss the ground!
As to retracements,yeah,look for the last BOT retracement. I am not convinced SBM hit it's price to stay in the short term. I plugged in 27.5 as a buy and will sit 'til the BOTS prove me other wise. No disrespect to any holder and I honestly hope 'the few that are having a lend of this company' decide to take it to the next level,but if any one bought for 30 and then sells for 27.5 on a stop loss,I have no guilt in taking it off your hands.
Sorry to ramble on but I have seen enough with over 60 trades for the 9 months to see how manipulated the ASX(and any other)is. Definitely squat to do with fundamentals. As Warren Buffett would say, Be fearful when people are greedy and greedy when people are fearful.
Good luck to all :)))I state no position 'cause the order is still to be executed and sell 'cause 30.5 is a good price if you are not holding due to a higher buy price. All the above is my own opinion. It is a damn good company but as 20Twenty20 rightfully states, it is a select few having a lend.