ghostey the people that are selling are the onces that brought...

ghostey the people that are selling are the onces that brought in at low levels and are not absolutely confident about what might happen next week. They are thinking a good profit now might be better that a potential higher return with much higher uncertainty next week. What I mean by the word uncertanty is that everyone like you is talking about what will happen at spud and the potential gains to be had. A lot of those investors who are talking about that event have picked that point in time as there get out time. Now if you get a heap of investors trying to get out at spud prior to drilling and the buyers dry up a little then you get downward pressure on the SP price regardless of whats actually happening. Plus IMO shrewd investors would have already factored in the spud event anyway remember its only a few days away.

Personally I dont expect a large rise in SP when they spud if anything it might even go down slightly. The rise will come if they hit something. So my word of advice to you is if you are in it for the entire journey then the spud date doesnt matter, your fortune will be won or lost if they hit or miss during drilling. But if you are one of those investors waiting for spud to get out then becareful because you wont be alone trying to sell your parcel and if buyers are slow picking them up then the price will fall especially as the drilling starts and makes some holders nervous.