Interesting post from the Bristlemouth Blog which is written by...

Interesting post from the Bristlemouth Blog which is written by the manager Steve Johnson of a substantial shareholder of ILF II Funds Management (http://www.iifunds.com.au/bristlemouth):

"Then there’s the ‘mosaic theory’, a CFA guideline which stipulates that you aren’t (obviously) allowed to trade on any material information that hasn’t been made public, but you are allowed to use lots of individually immaterial pieces of non-public information to make a case. For example, you might ring ING Real Estate Community Living Group (ILF) to speak to the CEO, Simon Owen, and the secretary tells you he’s in New York. You’ve already noted that the board had written up the value of the New York assets in its 31 December accounts. You also remember your meeting with the asset managers of these particular retirement homes on a recent trip and finding out that they are logical buyers and owners of the assets. There’s nothing wrong, according to the CFA at least, with concluding that a sale of ILF’s New York assets is imminent and that the price will likely be at or close to the 31 December book values (I have actually reached such a conclusion, by the way)."

What does all this mean:

ILF is currently trading at 18 cents versus NTA 32.2 (as per the revaluation announcement on the 28th of December 2012). There appears confidence that they will at least get the revised book value for the US Assets (i.e. 9.1c per share of existing NAV)which would mean that half the unit price could shortly be spare cash (their gearing is already 40%, so no debt reduction pressures).

Further, there is industry speculation that a Group is ready for a hostile strike:

"Following our recent story of a pending buyout of ING management rights to its rental village portfolio, it's rumoured a new, unknown investment group is marshalling to strike without engagement with the current ING management."

This was taken from The Source which is an industry email sent by www.villages.com.au

Finally it was reported in The AFR that Ron Brierly has just become a top 10 shareholder in ILF.

All the above may not eventuate but it is definitely worth waiting to see which is what I am doing.