Despite the stated intentions of BHP to develop Jensen, the...

Despite the stated intentions of BHP to develop Jensen, the threat of Colluli must be a conundrum for them.

BHP spending $2.8B there versus a competitor accepting the sovereign risk of Eretrea but having to outlay < $1b for same output and much lower Opex is a huge competitive threat to viability of Jensen.

The history of BHP investment stuff ups would suggest the lower cost of Eretrea / Colluli but at a higher risk would appear to be a venture they could be comfortable with.

Pushing ahead with Jensen would appear to be throwing more good money away. It would mean writing off the $341 (?) m they originally outlayed for it + extra capex since then - and upsetting Canadian’s. The latter would probably loom a larger concern – given their need to maintain good business relations with a country in which their bound to be pursuing other ventures.

Their stated intentions re Jensen should be sending a significant message to Eretrean’s re the tough - anti business conditions their imposing on STB – pull your heads in or you’ll have an asset that no one will ever develop!

And maybe, just maybe, that’s the real purpose behind BHB’s public statements.

Maybe they believe STB is worth the risk.