As far as the title of this thread goes, I feel that the Perkoa...

As far as the title of this thread goes, I feel that the Perkoa cost blowout and the subsequent requirement for Blackthorn to relinquish down to a considerably smaller share of the JV fits the headline. Some have made the remark in recent days that "It's still the same company as it was six months ago".

Um...NO...

Six months ago Blackthorn had a 40% share in Perkoa; now it has 27%. This is an example of what happens when timelines cannot be met and costs blow out. The cash burn is constant and the weaker party ends up capitulating.

Okay so now the focus is on Mumbwa. Does everybody think it's going to be a free ride from here all the way to copper production at Mumbwa with Blackthorn able to retain it's present share in a possible project? Isn't Perkoa an example of the path to production being a very slippery slope?

Seems like with Mumbwa they are embarking on yet another round of infill drilling to "better understand" the deposit and gather yet more data for feasibility studies. An unknown amount of cash will be spent on this further drilling and the various sequential feasibility studies over the coming year...The meter will be ticking the whole time.

And what happens after the Mumbwa feasibility study? Another JV with Glencore whereby they start off on the back foot and then costs blow out and it gets worse from there?

But, before I get hammered for the doom and gloom, and particularly in light of the fact that things aren't much fun right now, let's look at a more positive picture:

Perkoa finally does get up and starts shipping zinc, and Blackthorn finally has an income-stream. And lets assume this income stream is enough to stabilize the books and pay for ongoing activities at Mumbwa. Perhaps the bank balance will actually start to grow rather than leak, and further placements and so forth will become unnecessary for keeping the company alive and moving towards a bankable feasibility study of a copper mine at Mumbwa. The question will then be a case of the economics of such a project and once again how much a share of it Blackthorn can maintain.

So, for me the scary thing is not knowing what sort of share of a possible Mumbwa copper mine Blackthorn can hold on to. The sooner that cash starts rolling in from Perkoa, and we can examine its effect on the books, the better.

Perhaps today was the right time to buy; perhaps I should have jumped back in. But it feels a bit like Glencore has Blackthorn over a barrel. I have not yet ever convincingly regretted quitting my position in BTR last year. It was a difficult decision at the time, but I was feeling something akin to the title of this thread. I still have that feeling, but as we know, feelings can't always be trusted...