something to ponder, page-16

I never thought I would see the day but I actually agree with you Chef on this one. The Straits of Hormuz and Arabian Sea are one of the two big oil choke points and with rising Israeli ambivalence against Iranian nuclear developments (Bibi and Ehud talking up the military option in Cabinet), the whole region could turn into a "bucket of sunshine" vey quickly. But they would need to drop the Silkworms before they slam into a tanker or two mid-straight and shut the place down.

Another interesting issue is the political landscape in Egypt. With the Muslim Brotherhood and Salafis getting 65% of the vote in first round elections in Egypt and with a foreign reserve of 26 billion USD (burn rate of 1 bio a month) they need to get that tourism sector up and running quick smart, something the Salafis will be well against. Fees for the Suez transit could rise significantly in a few years. Look to see early movement in the Baltic Dry index for this. Makes any oil field outside the sandpit highly valuable.

Still, I dont see much changing in the next 6 months at least.