Something to set us alight, page-13

well Wheehawken I thought you would at least take a try. I cannot think of anything more important to Lynas than the Next Q report and AR. Probably the SAR after that.

for right now I figure they will have AUD 40~50 M dor Q4 and here is why I think it.

Let me calculate what I think the Q4 Revenue will be. AS you will see there are assumptions and if you or any one else think I made a mistake i would be glade to correct it. All I ask is that people include why! Not just that i am crazy or a down ramper. Taking a quick scan of the announcement for Q4 I see nothing that would impact revenue other than what I already gave you. The only unknown that I can think of is they receive some or all of the USD 5M for phase one. Since contract award was well know probably not required to announce it but it would have been positive news so I think it would have been announced so I will not include it.

So for Q4 it comes down to sales volume of REO times Price I will do Sales volume first
So in the Q3 they approached NEXT rates and made 4465 tons I will use that as a base. Now they lost all of April to shut down they resumed on 4 May. Now several years ago it took Lynas 3 or 4 weeks to restart plant. it has been better since then and in the last Q CC Al talked about how good they have become. But they are only allowed 50 % of people on site at any given time. I am sure a restart is an all hands on deck situation So here is my first assumption. That they reach full production in about 15 days including the first 4 days of May so May 15. they are at full. (Every product is different but we need some sort of number) So 4465 /2 = 2232. tond REO but they have said often they will be limited to 70 % so 1563. Tons. My guess this is high.

Now price is a little harder. But again lets start with Q3 Lynas lists AUD 19.80 for an ASP. but there is a problem here. Lynas on March 23, 7 days before end of Q said

" Lynas currently expects to achieve positive cash flow from operations during the March quarter, before payment of approximately
A$14 million relating to the Permanent Disposal Facility (PDF) "

Now I think ASP in Q3 of 19.8 is high for Q3 the following says Why but to avoid controversy I use AUD 20 so if you want to skip the proof you can.

Now reality is they had a positive cash flow of AUD 13 million after paying for PDF. Lynas is a well run company I doubt it was just a mistake. You have to look for something unexpected to explain error. I think you can explain it by looking at tons made Vs ton sold. they sold 4601 tons made 4465 that is a delta of 136 tons. I think when they announced shutdown all their customers came and took all they had which they did not expect.
This 150 tons. Lets look at the last 5 Qs The AUD/ USD exchange rate at this time was 0.61. The average price for NdPr was 35 USD and it dropped rapidly during Q so I will use 35 / 0.61 = AUD 57.00 times 136 tons is about 7.7 M AUD Still not enough to explain discrepancy But for this method it is about the best I can do. so subtract 7.7 from sales revenue of 91.2 = 83.0 and use the REO made 4465 = 18.5 AUD / KG now if i look at past ASP AUD 14 ~ 24 and past NDPR prices the 18.5 looks like a better number To avoid contonversity I will use the Q3 price of 19.8. for this discussion.

So 2232 Tons times AUD 20.00 = 44.64 M AUD.

Now this compares with 91 M in Q3 So less than half the revenue Q3 to Q4. Adding Q4 to Q3 = AUD 136M. now in H1 they had AUD 180M in revenue and only 3.9M in NPAT profits? What do you think a 44 M drop in revenue will do to NPAT and SP, Yes some expenses do go down with lower production it is up to you to guess about those. ( I will keep my numbers to myself until after Q4 CC but there is lots of data to come up with a good guess).

My final guss on Q4 revenue AUD 40M ~ 50M.

We will all know if I am crazy in about 3 weeks. Do you or anybody want to put out a number before Q4 results. Chem you are always talking about your math ability and how much you understand you should want to get your number posted and on the record.