something wrong?, page-12

Hi Hairyback,

Thanks. OK here is something fresh for you.

Is CCC a speculative stock or an investment?

To me I would define an investment stock as something with a clear line from A-Z, with A being "lets start a business" and Z being steady profits and dividends. Think of it this way, if the stockmarket closed today for five years would you hold stock XYZ? I think it is more likely at that point you would gravitate to the investments and avoid the speculative stocks - suddenly T/A and market hype go out the window and all you are left with is the business.

I would define a speculative stock as one that people are hoping will make a lot of money in the short term purely due to market sentiment or technical indicators

Now sure, there are always cross overs. I am not trying to argue the merits of each type of play. I personally do about 50% in each and I find that works for me. Both carry risks, if you are good at trading/speculation you will make alot of money, if you are not well...

To start with CCC for me was always a long term play. I just couldn't see it running to the moon last year - the Market Cap was too high to start with. Now the problem is that most popular stocks on HC are speculative. Last year it was rare earths and copper this year it is potash and now oil. When these stocks heat up, they can run much further that what is probably warranted when looking as an investor. But that is speculation.

As an example, I just sold out of a prospective potash play that may have a large asset somewhere. At the height of its run on a fully dilluted basis, the MCap was close to 400mill. You see this all the time.

Now to CCC. CCC for me is an investment stock. There is a clear path to profit. They are closer to Z than we all care to talk about every day. Every week we get closer. CCC will probably turn a real profit this week, how much we will have to wait and see. But even if the profits are not as good as we hope for this quarter, CCC is still heading nicely towards Z, so it is a good buy for me.

Sure there are issues: South Africa, coal prices, lack of long term insto holders and some of these other issues that get bought up. But you will find these thing with any stock if you are looking for them. For me, I do take notice but I haven't seen anything yet that is much more than a red herring at this stage. If there was a real issue I would sell in an instant, but I can't see any of this stuff driving this current price when balancing these issues with the positive factors.

In any case, once profits start to roll in most of these issues will fall to the wayside one by one.

I personally at today's price cannot see more than a handful of resource stocks that have the goods that CCC have sitting as cheap as it is - I mean as of today the MCap is getting near 200mill - when you compare it to many of the speculative punts that have run up it is a joke.

Investment is not speculation - two different games, both lucrative if you are good at what you are doing.

CCC is a real producer, earning real money with real assets, top management and prospects and deals signed sealed and delivered with majors. Oh and thermal coal is hot and expected to stay that way.

The Hot Copper factor

So we have a situation where at least 20% of holders of this stock are on HC. And every day we hear about technical indicators. One of our top posters (who I do like) is constantly telling us where to buy and sell, and it is clear that a great many people are following him.

What do you think that does when all the brokers are watching you all every day? (and yes they all are - you are playing poker with an open hand by telling them that you are all waiting to buy on the trendline). Well they sit there and say, we will let them run to the trendline, and then we will throw in a few curve balls and then smash support and trigger stop losses etc. They know where you are all sitting.

And all the happy traders speculators are waiting for a bounce or some "news". Look we have had news that is getting better and better for months now and the stock is going backwards. What makes you think any of the news is going to suddenly jolt the price in the short term?

Cause while this game playing is going on the brokers have this where they want it, and you are all playing into their hand. They have no need to take a solid long term position because they know the mostly retail based holders are fair game.

All the while, this coal producer sits there and continues to grow day by day and at today's price is a screaming buy for an investor.

My advice is work out whether you are investing or speculating or trading this. If you are investing, you have a fantastic buy at this price IMO. If you are speculating this may not be the best stock for that - and that could be why many are saying this is "not performing etc", but if it is working well done.

Either way now is not the time to sell.

All IMHO