For those of you following this stock who have never read one of my posts or little write ups, here is a little background to who I am and the way I think.
I have only recently come back to HC after a long and much needed break. Needed some serious down time and a review of life in general.
I have extensive experience at senior management level at leading Australian retailers, exploration/mining companies, civil construction companies and various other forays into other areas.
I apply an emotionless approach to researching and reviewing listed companies.
Amongst other principles, I will only invest in Companies I perceive as being significantly undervalued and with at least +15x upside.
Sunbridge pricked my interest on the 28/6/2014. I search for noise, and they found their way into my 'have a look at' basket.
Now I have read some fantastic and well put together technical posts on HC so far. Some of the valuation targets are the result of some very sound methodology and in most cases would reflect a retailers actual share price.
Cash
SBB shareholders enjoy a cash backing per share of approx 6.5cents at the moment. Now as that currently represents 50% of the share price, this is a very significant first indicator that perhaps this retailer needs a review to see why it's ongoing operations haven't given it a much higher operating net worth. Now more significantly is this cash balance is remaining solid and has in fact increased during the first year of reporting. So an entity that is not burning its cash reserves, but is rather adding to it, is a second very significant indicator that something is not quite right with this share price.
Net Assets
Just another tick in the box. At 9.1cps as at 31/12/2014, it starts to make a 13 cent share price look ridiculous.
Earnings
There has probably been enough said about earnings on other threads. Read some of the analysis done by those who have crunched the numbers. - My point with respect to earnings is simple. Earnings are positive, irrespective of what ratio you want to apply they are another significant indicator that something is not quite right with this share price. You can't generate EPS of 3.2cps and be credited a poor 6.5cps equity value. Imagine what the result would have been if that was an Australian retailer.
The Retail Market
The retail market in Australia is one tough SOB to master. Spend bucket loads for super tight margins and cop it if the retail spend is even slightly weak.
The retail market in China is completely different. Wether you believe it or not, China will be establishing (yes establishing) its domestic retail market for decades to come. The paradigms within which China's domestic retail market operate are completely different to Australian, USA, & European retailers.
Number of Stores and Brand Awareness
SBB currently operate (company/franchise) approx. 400 stores in China. On population comparisons, that would equate to roughly operating 6 stores hear in Australia.
Now for those of you who don't know where I am going here. If you operated a retail franchise chain operation in Australia you would probably want more than 100 stores to successfully promote brand awareness.
Roll those numbers out into China and you can see a more than 10x expansion opportunity in the number of stores alone, should the Brands keep gaining traction.
Expansion opportunity is my next significant box ticking point.
Franchise model is another - Franchising shifts the risk and results in operators that want to achieve and work hard
Summary
SBB have a low cost retail model in an rapidly expanding market. They have massive expansion opportunities based on their low cost franchise model. Their financials are supporting this model. They are making money. They are building cash reserves. They simply tick all the boxes.
Where is the share price heading.
Unless SBB all of a sudden reveal something tragic, I see a solid revaluation, with a transition of the share registry to earnings driven portfolio managers.
The only real resistance will be the psychology of traders.
SBB's share price is headed in one direction. I suspect it will happen very quickly.
Diamond in the rough here people.
SBB Price at posting:
13.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
