Since there has not been any updates on expected pricing I'm relying on the DFS numbers. We won't get a better understanding until offtake agreements are announced.
The DFS uses the following prices:So using the expected output of 19,500 tpa anode and the LOM average price, expected annual revenue is $223M with EBITDA (LOM) of $4.08B (or $170M annualised)
- an average weighted price of US$12,312/t anode for life of mine (LOM)
- a forecasted flat price of US$11,875/t anode from 2030
- average cost of production for Talnode-C of $2,363/t
I'm willing to bet that the DFS prices are not far off the mark, given the DFS was released in July 2021 when natural graphite prices were about 29% lower than what they are now and graphite never bubbled like lithium (some of the price forecasts used in feasibility studies for lithium even a year ago now seem laughable) - the market is a lot more stable. We also know that china is restricting export of natural graphite which is likely to add supply pressures in the short term. No way to know for sure what will happen with the price long term.
Also, for those reading who don't know much about the company, production is likely to be significantly higher than 19,500 tpa in the long term. Once Vittangi is up and producing, management have expressed their desire to expand the mine to include graphite reserves that were not proved at the time of the DFS. The mine expansion will benefit from reduced permitting times under the Critical Raw Materials Act that should come into effect in the next year or two.
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