"son of a stock- hdr, page-8

re: What's happening today?.. Instead of going up
steadily, its going down again.???? any reasonable idea?

Minhla,

As others have already pointed out, this is just part of day to day price movements. A share trades outside of its fair value range a lot of times, but the fundamental does catch up to a stock eventually. In the mean time, it moves up and down without reasons or logic because they are highly-strung, highly emotional shareholders who can't cope with the idea of holding a volatile stock, or who simply can't cope with share investment, or who simply buy on tips/recs, and then sell when they realise a gain/lose of 5-10% - all without really understanding the company's fundamental, and then you have the technical traders who bail in and out of stocks. That's why it's a market - it has all sorts of different people with different personalities, investment profiles, views, etc.

I said a long while ago that Chinguetti was already priced in (on a NAV basis as well as DCF basis using long term oil price of US40), much to the dislike of a few local residents here. You could argue that with oil price at US60 or thereabout, Hardman is undervalued right now. You're right, but I would doubt very much if the market will price Hardman with such a short term view.

There has been a lot of negative press regarding the Mauritanian dispute, and it has undoubtedly harm Hardman's public perception/sentiment. Coupled that with a relatively ordinary drilling programme in 2004 and 2005, there is not much EMV (Expected Monetary Value) or exploration premium built into the stock as it stands. It is, by far, one of the better plays with good exploration exposure, and now with the benefit of solid production cashflow. But it isn't without its risk.

Make no mistake, I have an enormous position in Hardman. So I'm not down-ramping this stock. In fact, I am probably one of the biggest bull when it comes to Hardman. I have rarely sold them, and have continued to accumulate at prices I believe to be cheap (relative to my Hardman NAV) whenever I have the capital.

IMHO, if one invest in Hardman with a short term view, one will have a lot of sleepless night. If one worries about volatility, this is NOT a stock you'd want to hold. I'm not an investment expert by any stretch of the imagination, if at all. But like a few faithfuls here, I'm sitting on a core Hardman holding that is near a 9 bagger.

Relax mate... there's plenty of good things to come yet :)

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