soon to report on phase iia ms trial, page-5

Hi Baywatch

IMHO we're unlikely to see ATL1102 provide a magical cure to MS. What it will need to do though is do better than the current alternatives in progression and relapse of the disease.

Based on current evidence review:

- there is no evidence that any of the current treatments benefits patients in the long term
- steroids are effective for symptomatic relief of acute attacks but do not decrease frequency of attacks or progression of MS long-term
- there is evidence that the beta interferons reduce progression and relapse of MS but there are some problems using them long term - your body might eventually build a resistance to them and interferon betas have also been associated with depression
- no solid evidence for other therapies yet but some monoclonal antibody therapies may have a role


So ANP are hoping to knock the interferon betas off their perch that it is very early days.

To get an idea of the size of the market
- roughly 100 per 100,000 people are affected, particularly those in the cooler climates of Northern Europe/US.
- A yearly dose of interferon therapy will cost between $12,000 and $18,000
- Most MS patients live a long life but experience increasingly debilitating symptoms as the disease progresses

So it is an attractive market for drug makers and in answer to what effect a positive IIa trial would have on the share price - you would think there would be a significant re-rating of the stock.

If you're going to punt on a pharma stock then this is probably the time to do it. The market can get disproportionately excited about a good phase II result in the short-term before the reality of the bigger task ahead (namely phase III or out-licensing) kicks in.

Have a look at AVX after announcing their phase II and then the subsequent share price slide.

ANP's phase IIa will only assess activity and safety of the drug - it doesn't have to show that it can beat the current alternatives so as long as it shows SOME significant activity and is safe - there should be a shareprice increase. Chartwise there is a signficant past price level around 12c

At this stage I would be conservative and attribute nothing to their other candidates in the pipeline