Hi Baywatch
IMHO we're unlikely to see ATL1102 provide a magical cure to MS. What it will need to do though is do better than the current alternatives in progression and relapse of the disease.
Based on current evidence review:
- there is no evidence that any of the current treatments benefits patients in the long term
- steroids are effective for symptomatic relief of acute attacks but do not decrease frequency of attacks or progression of MS long-term
- there is evidence that the beta interferons reduce progression and relapse of MS but there are some problems using them long term - your body might eventually build a resistance to them and interferon betas have also been associated with depression
- no solid evidence for other therapies yet but some monoclonal antibody therapies may have a role
So ANP are hoping to knock the interferon betas off their perch that it is very early days.
To get an idea of the size of the market
- roughly 100 per 100,000 people are affected, particularly those in the cooler climates of Northern Europe/US.
- A yearly dose of interferon therapy will cost between $12,000 and $18,000
- Most MS patients live a long life but experience increasingly debilitating symptoms as the disease progresses
So it is an attractive market for drug makers and in answer to what effect a positive IIa trial would have on the share price - you would think there would be a significant re-rating of the stock.
If you're going to punt on a pharma stock then this is probably the time to do it. The market can get disproportionately excited about a good phase II result in the short-term before the reality of the bigger task ahead (namely phase III or out-licensing) kicks in.
Have a look at AVX after announcing their phase II and then the subsequent share price slide.
ANP's phase IIa will only assess activity and safety of the drug - it doesn't have to show that it can beat the current alternatives so as long as it shows SOME significant activity and is safe - there should be a shareprice increase. Chartwise there is a signficant past price level around 12c
At this stage I would be conservative and attribute nothing to their other candidates in the pipeline
- Forums
- ASX - By Stock
- soon to report on phase iia ms trial
Hi BaywatchIMHO we're unlikely to see ATL1102 provide a magical...
-
- There are more pages in this discussion • 9 more messages in this thread...
You’re viewing a single post only. To view the entire thread just sign in or Join Now (FREE)
Featured News
Add PER (ASX) to my watchlist
|
|||||
Last
7.9¢ |
Change
-0.001(1.25%) |
Mkt cap ! $71.22M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
7.9¢ | 7.9¢ | 7.9¢ | $10.54K | 133.4K |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 95281 | 7.8¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
8.0¢ | 267524 | 2 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
4 | 95281 | 0.078 |
2 | 68869 | 0.077 |
1 | 26000 | 0.076 |
5 | 201800 | 0.075 |
3 | 180866 | 0.074 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.080 | 267524 | 2 |
0.081 | 100000 | 1 |
0.083 | 100000 | 1 |
0.084 | 100250 | 1 |
0.085 | 220000 | 2 |
Last trade - 11.25am 23/08/2024 (20 minute delay) ? |
Featured News
PER (ASX) Chart |
The Watchlist
SER
STRATEGIC ENERGY RESOURCES LIMITED
David DeTata, Managing Director
David DeTata
Managing Director
Previous Video
Next Video
SPONSORED BY The Market Online