Exactly right, and i can see the mindset/logic of the bulls i just don't agree to the extent they do. newcrest would be an outlier and most do have AISC cost around the $1400 which is why it was close to the floor price to gold as large portion went to the wall as result.
TBH I don't know where the exact inflection point is for Cu. but i've always worked off .5-8% as the general economical cutoff/rule of thumb (if you have large tonnages). Meaning probably .5% operations are decently economical at $8/lb.
we're definitely reaching inflection point and expect that spike in price with 4-6Mt required by 2025. Not sure they're a huge capacity just waiting to come online hence why i think it could end up quite high but not super long term.
Incase anyone wanted a quick thumbsuck benchmark re Cu companies couple of quick links.
https://www.mining.com/featured-article/ranked-top-10-lowest-cost-copper-mines/
this is oldish but top 10 mines are under 3500/t (there's probably another small handful in operation lower than that as well. This correlates to 1.5/lb so agree if we we're at 1.8/lb we're at the lower end but not an outlier IMHO.
https://energyandmines.com/2015/11/these-10-mines-will-set-the-copper-price-for-the-next-decade/
heres some of the majors and their cash cost/grade tonnage. CYM is right in the mix. Anything sub 1.5/lb is massive anything under 2/lb will be sustainable long term and i think Barry and the team have a sustainable long term operation and very profitable at that. I'm sure which they can tune that AISC price down even further.
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