sorry - i've jumped ship, page-5

I am out at $1.10 AUD yesterday, and it looks like just in the knick of time. I was in around 65 cents AUD and while I am very sorry I did not sell closer to $1.50 AUD I think the shares will be under severe pressure soon and I don't want to lose this profit. I have a much different perspective on this investment than others.

First, I realize on a fundamental basis CCV look very undervalued. But the thing is *ALL* payday lenders are similarly undervalued because they are in an ethically challenged business and they are always one bad government decision away from being put out of business. So that is not the right way to do valuation on one of these companies.

Second, the typical trading pattern with a payday lender is trade in an upwards pattern when they are growing fast and the regulators are off their backs. That is what we had between the time that the settlement was reached with the Australian regulator and now. But now we are seeing press reports that the UK is going to crack down on this industry. UK is where all of their major growth comes from so that is a major cloud on the business. Assuming more reports of this type come out of the UK, I would not be surprised to see CCV repeat its crash of 18 months ago. I would rather see that crash materialize and stabilize before taking on the risk again.

Third, CCV is now trading below the 50 day MA, and the selloff and trend reversal has been on very large selling volumes. To me this means smart money is exiting because they see the same risks I do, and now the technical traders will use the break from 50 day MA as further excuse to sell.

I won't be surprised to see CCV at 60 cents if major regulatory initiatives are proposed in the UK.