Your quote is correct, but your assumptions are not - as explained below.
1. "Seeing as how PEN applied 12 months ago they can commence plant construction at any time now"
That is hypothetically correct. It can build the mine without the SML but the risks of doing so are too high (as the mine and plant are useless without the SML). No other U miner has progressed with mine construction prior to SML issuance and Gus has indicated that this will also be the case for PEN (as previously discussed on a PEN thread).
2. "Permit To Mine, which is due in the next couple of months"
The PTM was due months ago but is being held up by the requirement for a Form 8 signing (from the Berger family) and the establishment of a reclamation performance bond. There are no guarantees that these matters will be 'fixed' within the next two months. They may but a continuation of delays is also possible.
3. "If you succeed in getting a Permit to Mine then it seems from the NRC license guidelines that a SML is merely a formality"
There is no such connection between the two permits. One is a Federal matter (SML) and the other a State matter (PTM). They have their seperate processes and each have distinct hurdles.
The SML is far, far from a formality - as is evident from all the recently completed and current SML processes.
Just check the NRC web site and/or the Ur-Energy, Uranerz, Uranium One and Powertech web sites and you will find that the assessment processes have taken a minimum of 3 years and that not one applicant has yet completed the processes in minimum time (due to delays in the RAI phases).
Strata has been proactive in its permitting practices and has proven something of a 'poster child' with the SML. However, it still has to work within the core parameters.
With respect to this, Strata recently had a target SML issuance date of August 2013 - 2 years and 7 months after submission. In conjunction with the initial scoping review, the target was recently extended by 3 months to November 2013 - or 2 years and 10 months after submission.
Achievement of the SML in this time frame would still be a record for Wyoming ISR projects. But this depends upon several things - including Strata being the first applicant to complete RAI's in minimum time (something it has been unable to do with the PTM - which has taken 4 rounds of RAI) and success in the current litigation over the legal standing of the PRRC and the NRC to object to the application.
4. "I would guess that we will see plant construction beginning sometime April/May for mining to commence end 2012"
For the reasons mentioned above, there is no way in the world that this will happen. You are at least 18 months out.
Your statement also assumes that the following hurdles will be cleared in the next few months: project viability (i.e.conversion of the additional required 12m lbs of Inferred resource to M&I), project finance and decision to mine. They may be, but none are yet assured. And even if they are, there will be no plant construction in 2012 and probably very little, if any, in 2013.
Your assumption, also, that mining can commence within 7 months of mine construction commencement is optimistic. Maybe not impossible, but ss a reference point, Uranerz has just updated the Nicholls Ranch (3m lbs U) mine construction project - commenced August 2011, is on track and expected to be completed 'sometime in the second half of 2012'.
PEN Price at posting:
3.6¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
