SP activity, page-114

I haven’tcontributed in 3 months, but wanted to share my thoughts on this interestingthread.

In terms of the reflectingon performance of the share price over the last 12 months, I like to draw a distinctionand analyse:

1. whatwe know and can objectively infer; and

2. criticallyanalyse the subjective assessments made by contributors. Being subjective,these assessments may end up being right or wrong, however, I think itsimportant to critique these assessments to determine whether there is anysubstance especially when one is trying to fill the gaps.

This is a continualprocess I undertake, as it allows me to make an assessment as to whether I wishto continue to hold shares in the company.

I have no desire to losemoney, however I also acknowledge that until FBR can execute contracts it willbe a speculative investment which could turn out to be a dud. Its only at the verypoint I lose confidence, when I’ll sell and cut my losses

However, at this stage,although with the benefit of hindsight it would have been great to sell 12months ago and buy back in now, I haven’t read anything since becoming a shareholdermany moons ago that changes the overall fundamentals that the company isheading in the right direction (albeit slower than I would have liked).

So prior to commenting on“what we know and can objectively infer”, I think there have been some valuablecontributions in this thread that should warrant reflection.

Gamblore – “It's ludicrous to expect to time the marketperfectly at this end of the ASX. Unfortunately those that got in on the firstwave of hype, got it wrong. It happens to everyone at some point”….

In a later post - “I’m honestly not concerned at this stage.Despite the current, more vocal, negative sentiment which is obviously backedup by the SP slide, there is still a long list of excellent achievements for afledgling company. The wins will come, and the SP will follow”.

Dyoresearch – “Patience is required in thisend of town no doubt, but so is communication and this should be guided by theBOD who are charged with looking after the interests of shareholders, whichincludes keeping the share price at levels that don't dilute the hell out ofthe share registry when the inevitable capital raising to fund the next stagein the projects life comes about”.

GaryJitters– “The market can demonstrate a lot of emotion when expectations are notmet. I think it is fair to say we would of all preferred the 10 builds to becompleted outside, seen by the world and sold to the population for livingpurposes.

“Tofall into market emotion and sell now may be a smart strategy if you plan tobuy lower and can pick the bottom as I am not sure we are there yet, it willalso be smart if the business fails. if you think this business will succeedyou should consider the facts and remove yourself form the noise. They arefinally at a stage they can start to demonstrate the commercially ready HadrianX to clients. Is this not what we have been waiting for? Innovation takes timeand adoption takes more time again”.

Adent - “Look at the share price. Maybeall those other people (other than myself) in the market also have the wrongexpectations? Does it look like people in the market have confidence inFBR compared a year ago, or 2 years ago?

Nope,confidence is dropping. Whose responsibility is it to set expectationsin FBR and build confidence in FBR? In my view it is the Exec and Non Execdirectors.

If people in the market have incorrectexpectations leading to a lack of confidence leading to a low share price thenwhose fault is that? In my view responsibility lies with the Exec andNon Exec directors”.

Hayashi– “Ironically the fundamentals of the company are sound. Not making excusesfor their lack of communication and delays. HX is reaching the end ofthe tunnel w.r.t commercialization though delayed.

There will be those who went in after the hype.Didn’t or couldnt average down enough and hence all the despair now. CEO& BOD job is to look after LT interest of shareholders / value of company.Not ST SP fluctuation.

Pivacs couldnt help it when SP shot up to near 30cents on hype. Why is it their responsibilities now to ANN and prop upSP when fear and doubt drive SP down”.

So with these commentsin the background, I make the following comments.

1. Ipreviously commented that it is clear the market no longer places the same premiumon key announcements now than it did up until 12 months ago.

Setting aside stock market fluctuations,current economic climate, I think one can objectively infer that the market isno longer impressed with announcements surrounding the technical functionalityof the Hadrian X and generalised JV agreements.

I can only deduce the market is hangingout for the generation of income / firm contracts.

2. Thecompany has geared up with large premises and a large work force. The company continues a significant cash burn which cannot be sustained without capital and/income injection.

I cannot for the life of me comprehendhow an organisation with a professional board of directors, the majority ofwhich are independent non executive directors, would commit to this level of ongoingexpenditure unless it was confident income generation (ie. self sufficiency) isaround the corner.

Some readers may argue that this is beingnaïve (or overly trusting). I don’t think so, I think there is a fundamental andgenerally accepted principle that the company has a qualified Board who understandsbasic financial management.

3. Ithink there was a general expectation amongst all contributors that FBR wouldbe doing outside testing on actual plots of land by now.

Apart from being naturally disappointed (andcould be a contributor the share price performance), I don’t believe one caninfer there is a fundamental problem with the Hadrian X.

Given the imminent deadline for the 2^ndperformance milestone, which on my reading will effectively require the 10^thbuild being undertaken outside, I can only gather the company is keen to keepthings under a shadow of secrecy for one or two reasons, namely:

a) To hide the machine from those partieswho would be keen “copy it”; and/or

b) To iron out every little bug before thepublic display. In order to have its greatest impact, the company would want toensure that the build goes without a hitch.

Ithink it is too difficult to be able to come to a clear conclusion that the Boardshould be doing more than it is currently doing. Its always easy to blame the FBRBoard for the current share price performance, just as it easy to applaud the Boardwhen there was a price surge 2 years ago.

AsHayashi stated Pivacs couldnthelp it when SP shot up to near 30 cents on hype. Why is it theirresponsibilities now to ANN and prop up SP when fear and doubt drive SP down”.