SP Discussion, page-2

I think that the market is just priced at the level where the outcome is unknown. Even the most bullish amongst us presumably have a point at which risk outweighs exposure and would only buy more on +ive news. The Select Equities analysis suggested a 60% SP jump from a point close to current SP on positive news. I don't know whether they will be quantitatively right, but it points to an expectation that the market is unlikely to have priced in trial success.