FCF 2025E is $400M to $440M. The $400 target is coming from OPEX and labour cuts. Should be very achievable.
125% (500/400) is the payout ratio if we take the lower end of the target. 114% if they hit the high end. That sill implies a cut, to me, based on their stated payout ratio goals.
From the departing CFO they were going to use the DRP to bridge the cash shortfall. If they get $100 in 2025 DRP then the payout is covered by FCF on the low end.
What I don't understand, though, is they were buying back shares at around $5+ and now they're issuing equity at just over $3 as part of the DRP. Seems like equity destruction from the former CFO. Paying down $900M in debt, instead, would probably give them the FCF they need to be able to sustain the $500M dividend and also provide ample runway for their datacentre capex.
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