pjf,First up, I'm not saying STO's report is "most probably...

pjf,

First up, I'm not saying STO's report is "most probably incorrect" - I am just saying I believe it MAY be incorrect.

I don't know for sure - as I have said several times, I don't have enough info. I'm just going on my personal feelings as a geologist, which you can take or leave. I explained my reasons around the heavily interbedded nature of the Patchawarra. If I was able to speak with the person/people who made that claim at Santos, I'd love to be able to do so and compare notes with them, and maybe they would be able to convince me they did conclusively prove that flow is all from coal seams. But unfortunately that's not possible, so I only have my personal thoughts. I guess everybody has to make up their own mind.

Secondly I'm not saying D&M are wrong either. I'm sure they fully recognise that this play is not de-risked and that they can't possibly give Orica advice, as a consultant, that says "This play will definitely work, you should definitely sign up for a GSA."

More likely they have outlined to Orica the risks associated with it, most obviously the lack of any direct evidence of commerciality. Geology is such an uncertain science that quite often, being an expert in it basically involves identifying what you don't know to the highest degree possible.

Keep in mind D&M are the same guys who advised Linc Energy they had 100 billion barrels of recoverable oil in the Arckaringa Basin - the next Saudi Arabia, as news headlines put it all over the world! But you can bet that report was riddled with caveats and cautions about how high risk the play is and how there is no evidence that even a single barrel of oil can be produced commercially.

I'm certaintly not saying I know more than D&M about this. What I'm saying is neither of us know if it'll work. Nor do STX!

Hope that clarifies things a bit. All I'm doing is giving an opinion based on my own knowledge base and experience. I have an open mind on it though, and will happily admit I was wrong if STX get economic flow rates - in fact, I'll probably jump on the buy button.