International expansion will be into countries where the return on investment is justified. These countries currently include Japan (expanding into soft tissue and vitiligo once approved); Western Europe and Australia (about 25 countries in total) where RECELL already has approval for multiple indications including burns, soft tissue, vitiligo, and others. There are no plans to expand into China for at least 5 years (if at all).
No meaningful revenue inflow from vitiligo is expected until 2025 (after reimbursement has been granted and the full commercial launch)
Regarding FY24 revenue, it's always best to follow management's guidance which they'll provide an update on in the February earnings call. However, so far they've told us that FY24 revenue is expected to grow at a much higher rate than FY23 which is expected to be around 50%. YoY growth rate expected to be more than 50% over the next 3-5 years and that guidance excludes the vitiligo opportunity. It's really too early to comment further on but if I were to speculate, I think $100M is achievable for FY24 if all goes according to plan. Below is a mark up showing where revenue could end up in comparison to current consensus estimates - to me, it looks like there's potential for consensus upgrades in coming years.
AVH Price at posting:
$4.99 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
