Chuck, we all know your long term view on the gold price!!!!
You do a great job of keeping us all informed and your posts are very well detailed, but you have been saying that the price of gold is going to rise for at least 18 months now and it hasn't!
It was close to $1800 when I started to read your posts, in November 2011!
You are stating that gold is going to increase in price in the long term, based on charts, historical analysis and the opinions of the experts etc. Well 18 months have gone by ... just when is it going to rise and break the $1800 barrier again? 2 year's time, 5 year's time?
Eventually gold may break the $1800 barrier again and there are compelling reasons for this, including lower world production, China becoming a huge buyer of gold, India's continuing love of gold, smaller unprofitable mines closing which reduces gold output etc.
But there are many variables, market sentiments, panicked shareholders, nervous stock brokers, manipulators, governments etc. who are doing things that are detrimental to the gold price or who are actively trying to get the gold price to fall further. Then there are those who are constantly talking down the gold price. And all of these factors and people are winning at the moment!!!
On the other side there are those who are talking gold up all of the time, those trying to raise the gold price, banks buying large quantities of gold at the now bargain prices etc.
All I'm saying is that there needs to be a balance of views. Posters on here, and investors internationally, have bought physical gold, or gold stocks, based on the predictions of so called "experts", that the price of gold is going to rise!! And most are sitting on large portfolio losses!!
If experts keep predicting that the gold price will rise above $1800, eventually they will be right.. but it may take years? Who knows? It is like Nathan Lyon bowling in India, if you keep him bowling in the belief that he'll get a wicket , eventually he will, but it may cost him 200+ runs!
People buying physical gold or gold stocks purely on the basis that gold will rise one day are taking a big risk.
I believe that much of the risk has been reduced with ABU because it: is an excellent company is well managed and run is carefully managing its cash position is gaining worldwide exposure through its local and overseas presentations is gaining more respect from share brokers and institutions has a huge land holding in the NT has discovered over 3m oz of gold, and this I believe will increase to over 5m oz before too long will begin trial mining very soon will have cash flow from gold production soon and that this will increase to much higher amounts in 2014 has outstanding potential for new discoveries and deposits is currently drilling with expectations of adding more gold to its already impressive portfolio
and finally, most importantly, ABU has stated that the cost of producing each ounce of gold will be around $520 an ounce, giving the company a nice profit margin at current gold prices and even if the gold price falls further!!!
That to me is the most important figure, rather than when gold breaks through the $1800 mark again!!
ABU has so many positive things going for it, that, at some stage I believe its sp will rise significantly. I am equally sure that there will be more sp rises and falls along the way.
I am confident that at some stage ABU will break through 8c and I'm hoping that it will even break through 15c, some time in the next 18 months. Only time will tell what its sp will do?
In summary I like to see a balance of views on the future gold price. I still think that, if and when gold breaks through the $1800 barrier again, is pure speculation, especially the when!! How long a wait will that be? I wish it was $2000 or more already but there are greater forces at work trying to hinder its rise!
Investors should be very cautious about buying gold stocks on the sentiment that the price of gold will rise one day. ABU has many elements in its favour and will still be very profitable even if the gold price doesn't rise, or continues to fall.
Chuck, I have no problems with you posting as much bullish gold info as you want. You posted a massive amount of bullish gold info on the KGL board, about the price of gold rising and it didn't. And I know that you got burnt with KGL's share price fall into oblivion, just like I did, and so many other HC posters and investors.
I just hope that investors remain cautious, and posters like me continue to present the other sides of the gold story, so that HC readers don't get caught up in the emotions and the delusions of grandeur, greed and prosperity, that have cost thousands and thousands of investors worldwide, billions and billions of dollars in their savings, superannuation and investments, over the last few years of this whole gold price and gold stock debacle!!!!
And the gold debacle is still continuing!!!
Go ABU!
(good luck to all with your investments and investing strategies, it is not an easy time for anyone!)
ABU Price at posting:
3.0¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)