sp is holding up well., page-57

Vendor, there is no one set price anyone can put on any gold stock (or any resource stock for that matter) ATM with the near term gold price so volatile. The iron ore price, the copper price both have been as volatile as gold from their respective highs to recent lows so its not just gold stocks getting difficult to put a target on. In fact I see these as more difficult to predict than gold.

To value any resource stock you need to make assumptions about a number of variables with the commodity price being the most volatile and difficult to predict.
Do I work out my idea of fair value for ABU based on where you think gold might be on average over the next few years, where I think it will be, or do I use spot and therefore change my valuation every time someone asks?
We will find out over the next year or two how well the market is doing at valuing ABU right now.
As for the GRY example, either the market was dead wrong when pricing it at $2 or it's dead wrong now at 20c. It was either wrong at that time about the POG holding near $1900 and the prospects of GRY getting into production or its wrong now in valuing GRY at 20c. The market simply can't always be right when you see such huge price swings.
The market was either wrong a few weeks/months ago in its valuation of gold stocks based on POG at that time holding or it is wrong now in assuming that POG will stay down.

I am comfortable with a LOM average gold price assumption of A$1600. I expect it will be much higher in a year or two but we will only know in hindsight. At $1600, ABU can make profits in excess of $50mill per year at 300ktpa, 92% recovery and 10g/t average head grade. There are other variables as well though (how much do they spend on exploration, admin etc- I assumed $20mill/yr for both). With those assumptions I see this as a 10c stock with good upside from OP exploration, potential to develop high grade zones from Buccaneer, potential to develop Hyperion, and green fields exploration potential. With a lower POG assumption I would lower my overall target and with gold eventually rising to new highs I would raise my target.
My target could also change depending on results achieved in trial mining. I see good potential for grades to come in significantly above 10g/t from OP (obviously higher from GH). If so, contained ounces will be revised higher and annual production through the same plant will increase. At the same time cash costs will drop and my target will rise sharply.

I'm starting to have doubts about the POG being pushed much lower.
They have already spooked the broad market with plenty of talk about whether lower gold is signalling deflation. They will not want that continuing so I’m guessing gold will be allowed to slowly recover without making a new low.
If I'm right about that we may have seen the lows on gold stocks. Just a thought.