Obviously looks good right now boiler.
Looks like Draghi and co did an excellent job of talking gold down. Good idea on their behalf. Make markets question if the pigs may have to start selling their gold as well at some stage and you get the "sell just in case" trade.
Then the stop losses, then the fear selling, then the questioning of whether this indicates deflation, etc.
If the market is questioning about deflation, then all stocks will go lower not just gold.
More brokers will automatically cut commodity price forecasts as the price falls (the oppositte of what they do when prices rise). So expect further downgrades on producers. We had some yesterday and Citi is doing it today.
BBY yesterday;
BBY cut RRL (new target $4 with sp now at $3.55) and EVN (target $1.10 current sp $1.17) to underperform from strong buys, but SLR retained as strong buy although target cut to $2.80 (they also kept KCN as a strong buy with a $4.25 target- currently $2.96).
Citi today;
OZL target dropped 25% to $5.70 (neutral),
PNA cut 24% to $2.20 (sell from neutral),
KCN cut to neutral and RRL to sell.
NCM cut to sell.
The opposite will happen when gold stabilises and then begins to rise again but expect any upgrades to happen after the fact again.
I still consider ABU a long term buy on fundamentals but with the obvious expectation of short term weakness in sp while this all plays out.
I still am long term bullish gold and the long term upside gets better the lower it goes but I am very wary of the short term as the fear feeds off itself.
Some of the higher cost producers are likely to be in for very heavy falls still if the market decides gold will be weak for a while yet.
The problem with a leveraged (high cost producer) is that the leverage increases rapidly as the gold price drops.
E.G. If long term POG assumption is $1500 and total costs are $1300, it takes only a $100 drop in gold to halve margins.
If gold price assumption then drops again from $1400 to 1350, then it only takes a much smaller $50 drop to halve margins and profits again. If long term profit expectation is halved, expect the sp to halve. So the sp of a high cost producer can theoretically halve and then halve again on just a $100 (6%) drop in gold and then a $50 drop in gold.
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Obviously looks good right now boiler.Looks like Draghi and co...
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Last
0.2¢ |
Change
0.000(0.00%) |
Mkt cap ! $6.350M |
Open | High | Low | Value | Volume |
0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | 0.0¢ | $0 | 0 |
Buyers (Bids)
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
14 | 23827442 | 0.2¢ |
Sellers (Offers)
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.3¢ | 77286597 | 35 |
View Market Depth
No. | Vol. | Price($) |
---|---|---|
14 | 23827442 | 0.002 |
55 | 220871310 | 0.001 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
0 | 0 | 0.000 |
Price($) | Vol. | No. |
---|---|---|
0.003 | 77286597 | 35 |
0.004 | 12665000 | 8 |
0.005 | 1935720 | 3 |
0.006 | 50000 | 1 |
0.008 | 3926371 | 1 |
Last trade - 16.21pm 07/07/2025 (20 minute delay) ? |
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AUSTRALIAN GOLD AND COPPER LTD
Glen Diemar, MD
Glen Diemar
MD
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