Great post, Dasa- how did I miss it? It contains things I...

Great post, Dasa- how did I miss it? It contains things I understand- capital return$, etc. ;)

You though, are a long-termist, and I am coming to think the market doesn't always operate in that way (although if i had it all worked out, my trading/bank balance would be higher).

The capital return will go ex on May 20 if it gets passed, and I think it will. Here's the dates on page 7:

http://www.ozminerals.com/Media/docs/ASX_20110209_2010-Full-Year-Financial-Results-6e556a86-6fb9-4230-81e9-215debbbf1ab-0.pdf

You said:

"At $1.46 whith a capital return of 12 cents this translates to $1.34 (expect a price drop when the capital return happens)."

Let's make that $1.48. Actually, let's make that any dollar value. We have about 9 weeks until then, and what a difference a day makes on the shares. Where could OZL be in 9 weeks? The theory behind dividends/capital returns, etc, is that the price is meant to rise to a level equal to the capital return, and then drop at ex, so it becomes neutral. I have come to not particularly liking dividend stocks, because the price gets messed with too much, in my view.

In a bullish market, OZL will rise, perhaps making the capital return look stingy. If things look really bearish pre-capital return, people will be excited by the high % involved. At least we know the capital return amount (unlike SIP- WOOF!) I'd expect that there'll be some kind of buying flurry before the OZL ex-date, but until then, anything can happen.

Loving these posts, Dasa and Horse and all of you OZL's. :)