StageDateScenarioTarget Price (AUD)NotesFirst Gold...

	Stage	Date	Scenario	Target Price (AUD)	Notes
1	First Gold Pour	Jul-25	Low	$0.20	46koz output; DCF alone supports ~$0.039/share. Market cautious but confident.
2			Mid	$0.225	Commissioning risk lowers; strong FCF potential priced in.
3			High	$0.250	Optimism around execution and drill results support early re-rate.
4	12 Months Post-Pour	Jul-26	Low	$0.300	65koz output established; DCF supports ~$0.051/share.
5			Mid	$0.335	DFS confidence increases; market starts to price in upside.
6			High	$0.420	Re-rate driven by consistent delivery and growing institutional interest.
7	24 Months Post-Pour	Jul-27	Low	$0.460	Resource upgraded; 80–100koz output in sight; DCF supports ~$0.065/share and climbing.
8			Mid	$0.540	Market recognises long-life potential and scales EV/oz toward peer average.
9			High	$0.640	Sustained 100koz/year production + strong sector tailwinds = full re-rate scenario.

Meeka Metals (ASX: MEK) Valuation Notes:

• • Fully diluted share count of 2.65 billion shares

  • Current gold price: $3,390 USD/oz

  • DFS cash flow projections

  • CEO's goal to scale to 80,000–100,000oz/year production from Year 3

  • Signs of ongoing resource expansion

  • Gold Price: $3,390 USD/oz (flat across all years)

  • AISC (AUD): ~$2,000/oz equivalent (converted from $1,946–$1,982 USD)

  • Year 1 Production: 46,000 oz (per DFS)

  • Year 2 Production: 65,000 oz (per DFS)

  • Year 3 Onward: Assumed 90,000 oz (midpoint of 80–100koz CEO target)

  • Free Cash Flow DCF (AUD per share):

    • Year 1: $0.039

    • Year 2: $0.051

    • Year 3: $0.065 (based on 90koz)

  • Peers trade at $6,000–$11,000 EV/oz; Meeka’s current EV/oz is ~$2,883

  • Valuation re-rate is supported by fundamentals, not hype
    Revised Share Price Valuation Table (2.65B Shares, AUD)
    Information Purposes only DYOR