All in my considered opinion of course.
Sorry but the POC1 story is a beat up.
Its not going anywhere any time soon.
Even if Anteo get a deal, the revenue in all likelihood, will be less than 1 million p.a for Anteo.
Not the 10 million figure bantered around
That might justify a market cap of 50 million or 5 cents a share.
Without it, the sp should be more like 2 cents in my opinion
Philips have been working on their Minicare for years now, often hailing milestones in 2008, 2010, 2011, 2012 and the last in 2014.All hailing the coming of age of the 'magnotech" technology that is most likely outdated by now.
POC1 troponin looks to be the only assay that philips/mincare has made to testing. Not one other.
This testing will at best be only approved for use in Europe in the short term.
Never mind that more than 50% og the POC diagnostics market is in glucose monitoring kits and another major market share is taken up by infectious diseases testing kits.
Never mind that there is still no consensus that POC troponin testing is a huge advantage to have .
http://www.radiometer.fr/fr-fr/serv...rdiac-care/critical-review-of-troponin-at-poc
"Elevated cardiac troponin concentrations are crucial for diagnosis of NSTEMI, but the added value from the time gain due to point-of-care testing, remains a matter of debate. So far, no study has clearly demonstrated that saving 60 minutes in establishing the diagnosis of NSTEMI and the initiation of appropriate treatment reduces the risk of major adverse cardiac events during follow-up."
Never mind that a Point-of-Care Troponin T Testing in the Management of Patients with Chest Pain in the Swedish Primary Care 2013
found that
"The use of POCT-TnT may reduce emergency referrals but probably at the cost of an increased risk to miss patients with AMI or UA. Swedish physicians at PHC centres do not seem to need the aid of POCT-TnT analysis to improve the chance of finding patients with AMI or UA. An ideal point-of-care cardiac biomarker for use in primary care should have near 100% sensitivity and be able to exclude AMI and possibly also UA with high accuracy. The purpose would mainly be to reduce the number of emergency referrals. This study emphasizes that before introducing new tests for cardiac markers in primary care it is important to evaluate the outcome, preferably by a large enough randomised study."
Never mind that Philips will not get FDA approval in the foreeable future for use in the main POC market of the USA.
POC Troponin testing will never get a waiver of CLIA.
Therefore if it makes it to market, it looks limited to the European market which is only the third largest market behind the USA and Asia/Pacific.
According to a report and a Global forecast for Point of Care diagnostics to 2018
"In 2013, North America held the largest share in the global market, followed by Asia-Pacific, Europe, and the RoW (Rest of the World). The Asia-Pacific region (comprising Japan, China, India, and the Rest of Asia-Pacific) is estimated to grow at the highest CAGR in the forecast period. Factors such as the huge patient population base, large number of R&D activities, growing focus of both international and domestic players on the Asia-Pacific Point-Of-Care diagnostics market, and increasing funding/investment towards the development of Point-Of-Care Diagnostics / Testing products are driving the growth of the point-of-care diagnostics / testing market in the Asia-Pacific region.
The global POC diagnostics market is highly competitive with a large number of global as well as local market players. As of 2012, the global POC diagnostics market excluding the blood glucose monitoring kits market was dominated by Roche (Switzerland), Alere Inc. (U.S.), Siemens AG (Germany), and Beckman Coulter, Inc. (U.S.), which together accounted for ~72% of the market. New product launches and partnerships/agreements/collaborations/joint ventures are the major strategies adopted by most market players to achieve growth in the POC diagnostics market. "
Now tell me realistically speaking and not from wishful thinking how Philips is going to disrupt the market with a single POC troponin test and make Anteo any worthwhile revenue greater than the company's running expenses.
And don't quote me the company's spin about $10 million p.a from POC1 alone.
Here is what they said in 2012 about their deal with Ebioscience.
"Whilst we were pleased with the signing of a licensing agreement with eBioscience in March, we expect our
level of commercial activity to increase in FY2013.
On 26 June, eBioscience was acquired by genetic products maker, Affymetrix Inc (NASDAQ:AFFX). The deal was completed for $315m in cash and is expected to significantly boost Affymetrix's foothold in the fastgrowing immunology, oncology and translational medicine markets. Affymetrix also stated its aim to invest in research and development to develop new products using eBioscience's technology.
For Anteo, this means that our Mix&Go technology has the exposure to a leading provider of microarraybased
products and services who are investing to increase their product range. There is recognition that there are numerous other applications for Mix&Go both within their existing product range and with the new products that are under development. Anteo is committed to providing assistance where possible to
ensure incorporation of Mix&Go into these products at the earliest possible opportunity"
The tradegy as I see it, is that multiple millions of dollar evenues are already factored into the SP and there is only going to be heartache when the ado balloon comes to earth.
All in my ill considered opinion of course but some one has to call a spade a spade.
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All in my considered opinion of course. Sorry but the POC1 story...
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