I do not see the Chinese supporting FMG. I understand the...

I do not see the Chinese supporting FMG. I understand the competition issue, though query FMG’s true influence on it given their size. China may be unable to support them. Their major suppliers remain BHP/Rio/Vale – are they going to give FMG a higher price, for apparently a lesser ore, than they give to their major suppliers just to keep them in the game? Of course FMG actually have to produce ore – as I understand it they are still fixing their beneficiation plant and have not shipped any ore for 6 to 8 weeks?
And I continue to re-iterate – in the current market why would anyone take over FMG? Apart from the fact that an outside investor would be uncertain of the extent of the can of worms within FMG, why acquire the debt that they have, and apparently the lesser quality ore that they have, at the current – or any - prices. Someone will acquire the assets, but unfortunately to me it now looks like it will be from an administrator.
Team China would be better off working with someone to acquire the assets – and suspect that FIRB issues will be easier to work through in the next few years than previously.
I will say though that Forrest is a fighter, and has a history of pulling rabbits out of hats. Perhaps he can again, but the current market environment is far more difficult than any he has had to deal in. It will need to be an equity raise and it will need to be significant, and it will need to be at a significant discount to current prices. However any equity investor is also going to be concerned by the goings on within. The SP truly can only go one way at the moment – how quickly it does that is a different question.
I am glad FMG got Owen Hegarty on board to provide industry credibility as well. Great job of disclosure at Oz Minerals – and a fortunate and timely margin call for his share sales there as well.