Hi Swanningaround, There's currently a block of stock being...

Hi Swanningaround,

There's currently a block of stock being pushed out at 56.5c (I think its through Bells) so that's putting a little lid on the sp this week otherwise I feel it could have hit 60c if left alone. But its now in the EOFY trading eddy which could take it 4-5c up/down from here over the next 2 weeks. I don't pay any attention to the sp during these times except for possible buying opportunities.

IMHO, NEA has 'matured' through the ' big multi-bagger' proof of model phase so a lot of the really big high-fives have already been done. We now in the early part of a 5-7 year revenue growth phase where, as a very rough rule of thumb, the sp can move at about 100-200% the speed of revenue so if revenue up 30% then sp could be up 30-60%. But we must also filter this through the markets expectation. And to date, NEA has tended to meet or beat expectations.

I think we are likely to see more colour on the strength of the Australian sales as well as the US before the late August FY results. And as you rightly observe, most interest (intelligent ones anyway) will be centred on the early US figures. But offsetting this could possibly be a small recorded NPAT loss.

I take a lot of comfort that the MD continues to reaffirm his sales targets which gives me the impression he has some room to the upside; he would have nudged the range down by now if he thought he was only just going to make it. I'm starting to observe that he has a tendency of keeping something in reserve to bolster his own personal corporate sp and I don't believe his personality can accept putting out an announcement that a target 'wasn't met'

But my commentary is worthless (well, subordinated at any rate)....you only need to 'listen' to the insiders like the CFO Beukes who just outlaid an eye watering $1.49m (WTF!) to exercise his options early - $800k of which was for 53c options(!!). Sure, the coy lent him the money to do so, but I don't know of any CFO that would take on that amount of debt unless they viewed the short term outlook as being very positive.

Remember, he didn't have to exercise...he went 2 years early (!). I have no idea why but the action suggests something long before Dec 2017.

Cheers,