sp up 10%, page-4

Perhaps the market is forgetting that there is a $285m Sword of Damocles dangling over the ordinary equity in the form of PXUPA.

$0.09 for PPX implies they can maintain circa $3b in revenue by 2014, get the EBITDA margin up to 3.3% (~$100m EBITDA) and be 'priced' at 6x EBITDA, after adjusting for debt corporate and restructuring charges.

This is very optimistic and doesn't give due regard to the ongoing cash drain from their pension liabilities in the UK, or the fact that any would-be buyer of some of their regions would apply a discount because many of their operating companies' have inflated profitability due to the way they recharge certain management and logistics expenses within the group.

At these prices you'd be buying on the assumption either the strategy is executed brilliantly and everything works out, or there's some plan in the works to take out the hybrid for a substantial discount to its $285m face value.

Smells funny.