Firsova,To get to my $0.09, I take the operating/enterprise...

  1. 118 Posts.
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    Firsova,

    To get to my $0.09, I take the operating/enterprise value (you're correct, around $600m), then subtract the market value of debt (approximately $225m) and assume that $60m of their existing $80m cash is absorbed in restructuring costs.

    Then deduct corporate overhead (say $9m capitalised at 6x if they can cut head office). From there you deduct the $285m hybrid, and what's left over is the ordinary equity value.

    600m-225m+80m-60m-54m-285m = 56m ordinary equity value = ~$0.09 per share.

    Not sure if 100-125 shares conversion would wash for many of the investors who were in PXUPA from $100 - perhaps after many bottles of said wine.

    On a side note, its worthwhile bearing in mind that we are only looking at one (fairly optimistic) scenario here. What happens if they can't restructure faster than the decline in the underlying business and end up chasing their tails? There are also leases which still have 20 years to run whose payment obligations are over $200m to consider.

    Kpool,

    They are perpetual as you mentioned, but can be redeemed/converted under certain circumstances, such as a breach of undertakings event by PaperlinX, a change of control or in a couple of other ways that don't depend on PaperlinX. If this were to happen, the conversion ratio would be at full entitlement value, i.e. over 1,000 PPX per PXUPA.

 
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