Hi frack. I am in at .215 and .23 today. I think we have found equilibrium reflecting the uncertainty. The reason I am in is on the balance of probabilities. My thinking (and I know nothing) is that if there is a real Yelena then the injunction is likely to be overturned. They will find a way to appease her and make this go away. MMK have asked for the case to be brought forward so I think that this is more plausible for me now. If MMK are behind this, then if they are stalling for time to engineer their finance, that is possible but less likely given the above. If they want "out" and this is a ruse, then that is possible. However, we have been trading up to .225 before any hint of a TO. We have had some good milestones since then. Also, I would be surprised if number two bidder in the strategic review is that far off the .30 pace. Could be where we are now or better. If we go through to production then we will get a good multiple. So, using my formula mentioned before, we have a higher upside against a lower downside. I think the probabilities have shifted for me, more into positive territory with the announcement of MMK today (and over the weekend news). None of us know what will happen but the risk/reward looks good now. At .25 I didn't like it.
I also thought that the announcement was clearly worded - I was surprised at the selldown so maybe a few have read it differently. Reading the article in the Moscoe Times makes more sense of the statement. They are leaving the finance drawdown alone unti they resolve the issue.
FMS Price at posting:
22.4¢ Sentiment: ST Buy Disclosure: Held
