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Pythag, here goes.
Will deal with JV/Financing details last as they are unknown and anything i do is speculation/guess work.

1. Cam/Congo Iron.
Cam Iron will be the entity that runs the Mbarga operation. Sundance owns 90%. Cam Govt can take 10% more which would reduce SDLs interest in the company to 81% per April Presentation page 4. Same goes for Congo Iron, it will run the Nabeba project, after Congo takes their extra 10% we will be entitled to 76.5% of the revenue from that entity.

It is not known when the governments will jump in and take the extra share, or even if they will..... naturally assume they will though.

2. As the government owns some of the projects already, they do not get anything else except royalties and tax. Royalties are estimated at 2.5% per DFS and tax in Cameroon is 35%. SDL has been promised a 5 year tax free holiday.... very helpful, given capex can be paid out before SDL starts paying tax.

3. JV Partner. Don't know how this will be done so all this is guess work. Assume 30% equity in project 70% debt (rumored). A new company would be setup, lets call it Mabarga Co, it will run this project.

When finance has gone through, the entire $ amount of capex will hit the bank of this new entity. 30% of it will be shares purchased in the company by JV partner.70% of it will be shares purchased in the new entity by Cam Iron using the cash they have recieved as a loan from financial insitution/partner. So this new entity would be 70% owned by Cam Iron and 30% by the parnter.

4. So how much is owned by SDL - the leftover.
The new entity would run the project and make all the money. 35 million tonnes at a margin of $42 a tonne = 1.5 billion. Less 2.5% royalty. Lets call it 1.4 billion.

Cam Iron gets 70% of this which is 980 million.

Total Debt is 70% of 4.686 billion (Total Capex cost) which is around 3.3 billion debt. 3.3 billion @ 7% is around 230 million. Leaves 750 million.

As SDL is a 81% holder of Cam Iron SDL ends up with around 607 million. Bit less for Nabeba given the smaller ownership. Working the above numbers through on a $100 IO price I get 1.2 billion to SDL. Not to mention more than 35MTPA which is likely.

607 million seems to low, given they expect to pay back Capex in 3 years, so the above is wrong somewhere(probably everywhere!!!). Important to remember, that the governments need to pay for their extra 10%, so this would bring down capex etc and explains some of the difference. Southern cross breaks it down pretty well on their valuation that can be found on the SDLbwebsite go straight to page 10-14.

Remembering all future tenaments (Meridonal, Metzamevin, etc) would be wholly run by Cam Iron so the dilution of future projects is much smaller - govt gets 19% SDL gets the rest.

Happy for others to have a crack. That is how i see it going down - but all will be out in the open in the coming months. Then the big guys can start working their valuations in finer detail for all to see.

This is the first project for this company, it won't be the most profitable, not by a long shot.

Ta,
Beef.