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share price Ok what has changed since Friday, the Romanian strain is confirmed as H5N1 (same as Turkey) which has galvanised interest in Europe, it is no longer seen as someone else's problem.
The big news, new confirmation that some strains are resistant to Tamiflu, together with a recommendation that Governments consider stockpiling Relenza as well.
I have no doubt Glaxo Smith Kline could contract to sell $Billions woth of Relenza if thay can produce it, I don't know what their current or intended future capacity is but I am sure Governments will be "encouraging" GSK to licence out third party production to their own national facilities. With the WHO recognising patents involved I expect the royalty result to Biota will be the same.
The early closure of the SPP could also be a positive for the price if they dont allocate the full 40M or so shares, less dilution will help the price as most analysts would have factored in full dilution.
The current market cap is about $400m (allowing for full SPP dilution), there should be about $50m cash, potential litigation settlement of 0 - $400m, the current pipeline of projects (LANI etc - value ???), and the big unknown of royalty streams over the next few years.
It is obviously impossible to determine, there is error of hundered of million dollars depending on GSK production and litigation outcomes.
I hold the stock, and expect it to trade significantly higher on current news, how much higher will depend on announcements of stockpile orders, production capacity and early litigation settlement. Be your own judge.