@Stefans Backwardation makes sense from a pure fundamental logic...

@Stefans

Backwardation makes sense from a pure fundamental logic in the sense that the current rise in IO is 'man made' from BHP/Vale then Vale itself with the potential for a few more spills from their existing slurry pit. At first I thought one could just fix the potential collapse by doing some kind of cementing but I don't think there is a short cut akin to a design fault. My hope is that this premium IOP is sustainable at least in the short to medium term provided China's consumption of rebar/steel is not impacted by the tariff war and with Trump's tweaks to the tariff, all scenarios are possible. Each time I predict, I fall flat on my face!

@col69
If I may apply some basic Fib retracement to the LT charts (weekly), the issue is where do we pull the low from. There are 2 options:

Low from the most recent Weekly swing low before price rally started (Dec 2018)
Low from a confirmed double bottom (Oct 2017 & March 2018)

Observing the sensitivity of price I have to say the 2nd option is far more "accurate" but this is just a guide I use, not gospel truth.



The lower candle shadows is the sensitivity of those Fib levels, the 50% and 61.8% with a caveat that this tool doesn;t not imply turning points as we are experiencing. The Yellow circle marked has a significance level for me and with the benefit of hindsight, this was where I would have entered. FOMO has something to do with it.

We are currently at the mercy of the global macro economic/political fight between 2 competitors. I am looking to FMG as possible leading indicator of the sensitivity to the contango that has just been implicated.

Good luck to us all, Lord help us.