Its unlikely to expect Spark or vodafone to get regulatory approval imo.
There is a story about Trustpower buying out one of its holding companies (or something like that), with speculation they are organising themselves for a bid. Trustpower are electricity, but started doing Internet, i dont think they have backhaul, so Vocus NZ would be good for them. http://www.nzherald.co.nz/business/news/article.cfm?c_id=3&objectid=11987022
There was also report 2degrees are after the fibre, with PE joining them and probably after the brands, but expect they will be a low bid.
Telstra are a logical bidder, they are spending money on all sorts of crap trying to generate new revenue from Tech, buying Vocus NZ and expanding their core strength would probably be the least stupid thing they have spent money on in years.
I think it will come down to Telstra vs Trustpower, but there where 16 expressions of interest initially, so it would be easy for there to be a wildcard in there.
Horth has said he is looking for $500m plus, i seriously doubt they would sell for less than $400m, it would be better for shareholders to do a credit raising for $150m to pay for ASC than sell NZ for $150m less than its worth.
Paul Budde might know a lot about the technicals of telco industry, but i see nothing suggesting he is good at valuing companies, he is very clearly out of touch imo.
VOC Price at posting:
$2.37 Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
